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An expert assessment of the world market of aluminium remains bleak

8 July 2013
An expert assessment of the world market of aluminium remains bleak

Despite recent measures to reduce production volumes

aluminium made by manufacturers of this metal worldwide, global

the market share continues to absorb its excess. According to analysts «Goldman

Sachs», to blame a large-scale increase in the number of Chinese aluminium smelters

providing a presence on the trading floors of products with a small

cost. Experts also believe that the factor uncontrolled «breeding

capacity» can threaten the established balance of supply and demand in major markets

the «winged metal», which further adversely affect

pricing in the sector.

Businesses that are not able to dramatically reduce the cost of

production of aluminium, can in the foreseeable future to be ejected from the market. Price

the metal will remain stable and low, any tendency to increase the cost

(due to the closure of small plants) will be offset by the large storage

stocks. To change the situation on the market can only review foreign policy

trade aluminium in China.

In the more distant future — according to some experts

the situation changes incompletely. For example, analysts of «Boston Consulting

Group» had previously said they did not rule out reviving demand for primary aluminium in

the next decade, which is expected to increase by 4−5%

per year and by 2017 will reach 55−57 million tonnes. At the same time

experts say the world aluminium production by 2017 may exceed

figure 67 to 69 million tons, which means that the market will continue to experience

a significant oversupply of the metal.

Recall that according to the «International Aluminum Institute» in

this year saw a slight decline in aluminum inventories on the world

the market: in may 2013 compared to may 2012, this figure decreased by

147 thousand tons. In comparison with the previous month, world stocks of aluminium

decreased by 38 thousand tons, but it is not stabilized the price of the resource.

According to the Federal state statistics service

Russia, since the beginning of this year, domestic enterprises steadily reduce

volumes of production of primary aluminum. The production of aluminum alloys in

country (goods with higher added value) increased more than

than 10%. Market analysts non-ferrous metals believe that such measures

uses the majority of the producers resource in the world, and this trend may

persist, at least until the end of 2013.

5 July 2013
10 July 2013